Motilal Oswal Reaffirms Buy on Adani Ports, Targets 39% Upside at Rs 1,820
Motilal Oswal Financial Services has repeated its BUY rating on Adani Ports & SEZ, assigning a target price of Rs 1,820 that signals 39% upside from the current Rs 1,313 level. This outlook underscores APSEZ's resilience against global shipping strains from Strait of Hormuz tensions. The brokerage points to limited exposure to volatile liquid cargo and steady container volume gains as core strengths.
Shielded from Trade Disruptions
Geopolitical issues around the Strait of Hormuz have forced vessel rerouting and caused congestion at Indian ports, yet APSEZ faces minimal fallout. Liquid cargo makes up under 10% of total volumes, with crude oil at 5-6% and gas at 2% in recent periods. India's heavy reliance on crude imports does little to sway APSEZ's consolidated throughput, thanks to its broad cargo mix.
Container Surge Fuels Outperformance
APSEZ posted 14% volume growth in the fourth quarter of FY26 through February and 11% over nine months. Containers drove a 20% jump, offsetting flat coal volumes hit by weak demand. Take-or-pay contracts preserve profitability amid swings. The company outpaced peers, with major ports at 8% growth and non-major at 3% year-to-date in FY26.
APSEZ commands India's largest private port network across 15 domestic sites and assets in Israel, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, and Australia, with 637 MMT capacity. Domestic market share hit 26.4%, containers at 45.8% from 36% in 2020. Haldia terminal commissioning in March 2026 boosts efficiency via rail links.
Logistics and Marine as Growth Engines
Adani Logistics handles 12 parks, 132 trains, 3.1 million sq. ft. warehousing, and 1.3 MMT grain silos. Rs 10-15 billion goes to trucking in FY26, Rs 50 billion by FY30, blending owned and third-party fleets. Marine operations, with 127 vessels post-Ocean Sparkle and Astro Offshore buys, saw 91% revenue growth in Q3FY26 and 55% EBITDA margins.
Robust Projections Bolster Valuation
Projections show revenue at Rs 369 billion in FY26E rising to Rs 516 billion in FY28E, EBITDA from Rs 221 billion to Rs 310 billion, and adjusted PAT from Rs 129 billion to Rs 202 billion. CAGRs stand at 19% for revenue and EBITDA, 23% for PAT over FY25-28. Net debt-to-EBITDA drops from 2.1x to 0.9x, backed by Rs 118 billion cash.
APSEZ trades at 23.5x FY26E P/E and 15.3x EV/EBITDA; the Rs 1,820 target uses 15x FY28E EV/EBITDA. Support sits at Rs 1,250 and Rs 1,200, resistance at Rs 1,450 and Rs 1,600. Capacity builds, logistics integration, and marine scaling cement its path to India's top transport utility by 2029.
